24
Jul
08

Electoral College map looks bad for McCain

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain has his work cut out for him, according to a map from Pollster.com. The map, which shows the situation according to polling averages, gives presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama a solid lead with a little over three months left to the campaign season.

As it stands now, there are 260 electoral votes locked up in “solid Democratic” states, making the path to 270 much simpler. And, that’s not even the bad news for the Republican. Virginia, which hasn’t gone blue in 40 years, is on its way to doing so. North Carolina, South Carolina, Mississippi and Texas, which should be locks for McCain, are not.

In South Carolina, the trend estimate only gives McCain a 4.5 percent lead.

If you believe in math and sorting out the end result from multiple simulations, it looks even worse, no matter what the point spread turns out to be. 270towin.com, which has been running these simulations, show an Obama victory as a virtual certainty.

UVa professor Larry Sabato (along with colleagues Alan Abramowitz and Thomas Mann), is already giving Obama the political equivalent of a three-touchdown lead:

“While no election outcome is guaranteed and McCain’s prospects could improve over the next three and a half months, virtually all of the evidence that we have reviewed — historical patterns, structural features of this election cycle, and national and state polls conducted over the last several months — point to a comfortable Obama/Democratic party victory in November. Trumpeting this race as a toss-up, almost certain to produce another nail-biter finish, distorts the evidence and does a disservice to readers and viewers who rely upon such punditry. Again, maybe conditions will change in McCain’s favor, and if they do, they should also be accurately described by the media. But current data do not justify calling this election a toss-up.”

Therefore, if the GOP wants to get anything out of this cycle, it’s going to have to concentrate on down-ballot races, making sure Obama’s coattails are as short as possible. If not, it could end up as a Democratic landslide year.

Pollster.com
2008 Election Simulator Results [270towin.com]
THE MYTH OF A TOSS-UP ELECTION [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]

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2 Responses to “Electoral College map looks bad for McCain”


  1. July 25, 2008 at 1:27 pm

    The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

    The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

    Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

    Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

    The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

    See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com


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