23
Jun
08

WTF poll numbers


timeinc.net
Originally uploaded by johnvierdsen

It’s June, so poll numbers at this point mean basically nothing. If you recall, even later in the year – just before the Democratic Convention in 1992 – Ross Perot was leading in the polls, with then-Gov. Bill Clinton in third place. A lot can happen in a few months.

Still, according to Newsweek, Sen. Barack Obama went from a 46-46 tie with Sen. John McCain to a 51-36 lead. It’s what Jonathan Alter of Newsweek called “a superball bounce.”

And, while the campaigns raised about the same amount of money in May, it’s assumed that the June money numbers will skew heavily toward the Democratic candidate. But, as always, there’s a rub.

The DNC isn’t so flush with cash. Latest reports show that the RNC has a $50 million advantage over its adversary to try to hold on to a few seats and snag a couple more in what’s believed to be a big year for Democrats. It may make a difference, though. There are races, like Mark Warner v. Jim Gilmore for U.S. Senate in Virginia, that are over already and will be a Democratic pickup.

But, if a certain race is competitive, the RNC should be able to come in and help out. Or, if it so chooses, spend its bankroll to shore up McCain’s spending deficit versus Obama.

Either way, it’s hard to believe that the race will be an easy win for Obama. History tells us that campaigns tighten up and whatever the electoral math, this campaign will most likely go down to the wire.

Barack’s Bounce [Newsweek]
Georgia on His Mind [Stumper]
RNC Retains $50 Million Cash Advantage Over DNC [TPM]

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